Influence of physical-geographical and climatic conditions on the forecast of the spread of contaminated air during possible emergencies technogenic nature in the Donetsk region

Abstract

The article identifies and investigates the main factors influencing the livelihoods of the population and the environment during emergencies of man-made nature in the Donetsk region. Complex man-made factors together with tense social factors (armed conflict) in the region cause the presence of constant man-made and military risks. The main risks to the life of the population in the Donetsk region are air and terrain pollution with dangerous chemicals due to mass deliberate or concomitant destruction of chemically dangerous objects. The article studies the indicators of physical-geographical and climatic conditions in terms of their quantitative consideration when forecasting the spread of polluted air in conditions of possible emergencies of manmade nature. Indicators of physical-geographical and climatic conditions are selected: terrain; vegetation cover; meteorological conditions (recurrence of wind direction and calm for the year, average monthly wind speed, average monthly air temperature, the amount of total clouds). Based on the nature of the terrain and vegetation, the value of the complex indicator is calculated. Taking into account the predominant type of relief and vegetation, the values of the complex indicator, depending on the season, range from 0.1 to 0.3. According to the complex indicator and the most favorable weather conditions for the spread of hazardous chemicals, the coefficient of impact of the area will be 0.5 in summer and 0.8 in winter. The results of the calculated indicators show that within the region, during the year, the behavior and impact of air polluted with hazardous chemicals are most dangerous for the life of the population in the summer (July). Calculating the value of the complex indicator of relief and vegetation, taking into account the coefficients of influence of terrain and climatic conditions allows to better predict the degree of impact of air polluted by hazardous chemicals on the population at the place and season, possible areas with high levels of pollution, distribution and areas of stagnant polluted air, the resistance of the area