Application of expert-analytical methods for threat assessment of critical infrastructure objects of the defense and industrial complex in the East of Ukraine

Abstract

The authors propose a methodological approach to assessing threats to critical infrastructure of the state's military-industrial complex in the context of a hybrid war. The relevance of the work is due to the processes of counteracting man-made threats in the territory of Donbass, which exist in Ukraine in Ukraine, as well as the lack of methodological developments with which is possible to assess the level of threats to the critical infrastructure of the defense industry. The authors of the publication identify the factors that significantly affect the military-man-made threats to the critical infrastructure of the defense-industrial complex. In accordance with these factors, the article gives a hierarchical system of indicators, which consists of three groups.
These groups characterize factors for assessing military-technological and natural-technological threats, and also contain particular criteria that allow us to assess possible threats.
The efficiency of this methodological approach is proved by the example of the ammunition industry in Ukraine. To carry out calculations to assess the most dangerous objects of the defense industry complex, the method of «hierarchy analysis» using the developed information-analytical system were used. The calculations were aimed at assessing the priority of protecting arsenals, bases, warehouses and defense industry enterprises, which, if they are defeated, pose the greatest threat to the state as a whole, according to the relevant criteria defined in the draft law of Ukraine «On critical infrastructure and its protection».
The article presents the results of a numerical experiment, which confirmed the efficiency of the scientific and methodological approach, its rather high accuracy and the visibility of the results.
The expert assessment made it possible to establish threat levels for the critical infrastructure of the defense industry complex, which include enterprises of the military-industrial complex of the ammunition industry (the integral threat index is 0.472), arsenals (the integral threat index is 0.259), warehouses (the integral threat index is 0.147), and the storage base (integral the threat index is 0.122).